Opinion, Guest Essay

Trump’s Broken Promises, in 11 Charts

By Steven Rattner, Graphics by Taylor Maggiacomo

Mr. Rattner, a contributing Opinion writer, served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration.Aug. 18, 2026

“Promises made, promises kept.” Other presidents have employed variations of that phrase, although few with the gusto of President Trump; he even proclaims it on the White House website. When it comes to the economy, though, “promises not kept” would be a more apt description of the first 19 months of Trump 2.0. And many of the promises he has kept are causing as much damage as critics predicted. All in all, while Mr. Trump continues to boast about the “greatest economy we’ve ever had, by far,” the record to date falls far short of that lofty pronouncement.

1. Economic growth

Trump’s Promise

‘We’re going to grow like nobody’s ever grown before.’

Economic Club of New York, Sept. 5, 2024

The economy is slowing

Annual change in real gross domestic product +6.2% Pandemic rebound+2.5% +2.9% +2.8% +2.1% +1.8% BIDEN TRUMP 202120222023202420252026

Note: Data for 2026 is through July 30. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED.

In this year’s second quarter, growth dropped to an annual rate of just 1.5 percent, a shift substantially caused or exacerbated by Mr. Trump’s policies. Rising energy prices and inflation. Decreased government spending. A deteriorating trade balance, thanks to his tariffs. That’s added up to materially slower growth than the healthy 2.75 percent rate that Mr. Trump was bequeathed by President Joe Biden.

2. Deficit

Trump’s Promise

‘In the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget.’

Address to a joint session of Congress, March 4, 2025

The deficit is projected to keep growing

Federal budget deficit per fiscal year OBAMA TRUMP BIDEN TRUMP Projected -$3 trillion-$2-$1 20152020202520302035

Note: The estimate for 2026 uses the Congressional Budget Office’s August projections. Estimates for 2027-36 use the C.B.O.’s February 2026 baseline. Sources: FRED; Congressional Budget Office.

Spending was high under Mr. Biden as he worked to combat the lingering effects of Covid and invest in priorities like clean energy and infrastructure. But even as Republicans cut a number of these initiatives, the deficit rose in Mr. Trump’s first budget after his return to office, largely because of his huge tax cut. And the Congressional Budget Office projects that it will continue to climb to $3.1 trillion by 2036. That makes the notion of Mr. Trump balancing the budget just plain laughable.

3. Debt

Trump’s Promise

‘But now it’s our turn to prosper, and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt, and it’ll all happen very quickly.’

Tariff announcement, White House Rose Garden, April 2, 2025

National debt is about to break its World War II record

Federal debt as a share of G.D.P., by fiscal year U.S. enters W.W. II 2008 financialcrisis 106% 99% Projected 50100% 1940195019601970198019902000201020202030

Note: Chart excludes debt the federal government owes itself. Sources: Office of Management and Budget; Congressional Budget Office.

Huge deficits mean, of course, more debt. The soaring national debt should terrify every American. It makes business loans and mortgages more expensive. And perhaps more important, it burdens future generations by squeezing Washington’s ability to fund other important priorities. The ratio of total debt held by the public to the size of our economy is about to surpass the World War II record. By 2036, the C.B.O. projects our national debt will reach 120 percent of gross domestic product.

Read more: Opinion – Trump’s Economic Record Doesn’t Come Close to His Campaign Promises – The New York Times

Continue/Read Original Article: Opinion | Trump’s Economic Record Doesn’t Come Close to His Campaign Promises – The New York Times