Editor’s Note: Prepared for DrWeb’s Domain by Perplexity AI. This is the missing monthly report for February 18 – March 31, 2026. Time window: February 18, 2026 through March 31, 2026. –DrWeb

Midterm Elections 2026: Updates, News and Projections Monthly Series – February 18 through March 31, 2026

Politics

President Donald Trump’s job approval is underwater in multiple recent measures, with Silver Bulletin showing net approval around -17.3 by late March 2026. Other polling put him in the high-30s on raw approval (36-39%), with disapproval in the high-50s (53-59%).

The campaign news cycle increasingly tied that weakness to the Iran conflict and economic pain, especially higher gas prices and inflation. The November 2026 midterms were still months away, but the political environment looked more like a referendum on Trump than a normal governing period.

On Congress, the House generic ballot favored Democrats (47.1% to 42.5%), and Senate battleground states showed Trump underwater in key races. That combination is historically dangerous for the president’s party in a midterm year.

Economy

Economic anxiety was the core issue for voters. Gas prices rose above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, and inflation accelerated sharply in March, with the 12-month CPI rate jumping to 3.3% from 2.4% in February.

The war with Iran disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude higher and feeding into higher prices for consumers. Forecasts were already warning of stagflation risk: slower growth plus elevated inflation.

Mortgage rates climbed above 6%, regional stock markets fell, and economists saw a meaningful recession risk over the next 12 months. Affordability, not abstract growth, dominated the political conversation.

Social issues

Social issues remained tightly tied to turnout and identity. Immigration, civil rights, abortion, education, and culture-war disputes were all part of the broader conflict, even when they were not the lead headline.

These issues mattered because they reinforced base motivation on both sides. In a low-trust, high-polarization environment, enthusiasm and anger can matter as much as persuasion in low-turnout midterms.

Key events

The defining event was Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran that began February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian leadership, military infrastructure, and nuclear sites. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes.

By March 31, Trump said the U.S. military campaign in Iran would wind down in two to three weeks and pledged a national address on Iran. He claimed the main objective—preventing a nuclear-armed Iran—had been achieved and predicted gas prices would fall once U.S. involvement ended. None of that has occurred.

Chart 1 — Trump Net approval (latest)

Chart 2 — Generic congressional ballot