The Final Polls Show a Blue Surge. Can We Trust Them?
Democrats lead in all the key states that will decide Senate control, according to new Times/Siena surveys.
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By Nate Cohn
Published Nov. 1, 2026, Updated Nov. 2, 2026, 8:43 a.m. ET
You’re reading The Tilt newsletter. Nate Cohn, The [Times]’s chief political analyst, makes sense of the latest political data.
Democrats gained ground right to the end in the final New York Times/Siena University polls of the 2026 midterm campaign. The party is ahead in all seven states likeliest to decide control of the Senate: Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio and, more narrowly, Alaska and Iowa.
Editor’s Note: See the chart in the online version. –DrWeb
A substantial Democratic lead in Texas? Kansas? Anything like these results would have been unfathomable just a few months ago.
In today’s polarized era, there’s no precedent for a party to fare this well in so many states that are generally safe wins for the other side. The only plausible comparisons are the Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, but the recent polls outpace even those. The average of all polls shows Democrats leading in the same states as the Times/Siena surveys, giving the party the edge in more solidly Republican Senate seats than it managed to flip in 2006 and 2008 combined.
Editor’s Note: Read the full article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/01/upshot/poll-times-siena-senate-midterms.html?unlocked_article_code=1.NVE.KFAa.HIJRkfdlm1Cp&smid=url-share
Continue/Read Original Article: The Final Polls Show a Blue Surge. Can We Trust Them? – The New York Times
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