Lowman Henry: A reminder — it’s still the economy, stupid – The Mercury

October 13, 2026

Lowman Henry: A reminder — it’s still the economy, stupid

PUBLISHED: October 9, 2026 at 7:30 AM EDT

In 1992, James Carville, a top strategist in the presidential campaign of Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid.” That short sentence summed up the macro winds of that election year and has since become one of the most oft-repeated political phrases — and for good reason.

Except in times of war or other external threats, the economy is the top concern of the American electorate. Issues such as that over constructing a White House ballroom are merely a sideshow to the economic well-being of the average voter.

President George H.W. Bush initially saw his popularity soar to record heights after leading a coalition of nations in the Persian Gulf War against Iraq. At home, however, the economy stalled. As election day approached, voters viewed Bush as being more concerned with foreign affairs than kitchen table economics. His popularity plummeted. Clinton heeded [Carville]’s advice, focused on the economy, and defeated the incumbent president.

Fast forward to 2024, and the nation was reeling from hyperinflation, high energy prices, and saddled with the cost of dealing with a massive influx of illegal immigrants flooding over the southern border. Polls consistently showed the economy and immigration to be voters’ top concerns. After replacing the incoherent Biden atop the Democrat ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris could not articulate any change in direction, resulting in the election of Donald Trump.

With the 2026 mid-term elections just weeks away, the economy once again has emerged as the top issue. The Trump Administration has dealt successfully with the immigration crisis, effectively stopping the flow of illegal immigration. Despite the Left’s preoccupation with the administration’s aggressive removal of illegals, the issue has receded into the background.

Like Bush, Donald Trump has become embroiled in a Middle East conflict. The difference is President Trump has simultaneously focused on reshoring manufacturing with significant high-profile wins such as the recent announcement heralding the investment of $15 billion to build a new steel plant in Iowa. Over the past two years, such investment announcements have become almost routine.

While Trump has been winning the macroeconomic battle — most statistical measures of economic performance are relatively good — he is losing at the kitchen table. The economic statistic most people see is not the current GDP or even the Consumer Price Index — it is the cost of a gallon of gasoline posted on signs along every highway.

That high prices are a result of the 21.4% cumulative inflation during the Biden presidency is lost because current inflation builds upon that, pushing prices ever higher. The conflict with Iran has prevented the inflation rate from falling, as disruption in the global oil supply has sent gasoline prices back to Biden-era levels.

Trump and Republicans in Congress have made substantial strides in helping the family bottom line. Passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, renamed the Working Families Tax Cut Act, has resulted in considerable tax savings. It expanded deductions, increased the standard deduction, enhanced the Child Tax Credit, and provided tax credits resulting in no taxes on tips, overtime, or Social Security income.

But the higher cost of energy and resulting inflation has offset those economic gains. Preventing a tax hike is mostly invisible, and while significant, simply preserves the status quo. This has diluted the political benefit for Trump and Republican congressional candidates.

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