Administration

Trump approval at lowest point of second term: Nate Silver

by Finya Swai – 07/31/26 9:59 AM ET

Political analyst Nate Silver said Thursday that President Trump’s approval rating is at a new second-term low this month, as the deeply unpopular Iran war persists and gas prices skyrocket.

“Timing lines up remarkably well with gas prices and the resumption of hostilities in Iran,” Silver said on the social platform X.

The prolonged military engagement between the U.S. and Iran has driven up oil and gas prices because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping corridor through which approximately 20 percent of global oil supplies pass.

As the war nears its six-month mark, the average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. on Friday morning was roughly $4.11, according to AAA, up from about $3.15 a year ago.

Two additional polls released earlier this week also show Trump’s dwindling approval rating, reflecting public dissatisfaction over his handling of the Middle East conflict.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday showed that 58 percent of surveyed voters disapproved of the president’s job performance, compared with 32 percent who approved. That number marks Trump’s lowest approval rating recorded by the pollster across both of his terms in office.

On Wednesday, an AP-NORC poll similarly found Trump’s approval at 33 percent, down 4 points from the previous AP-NORC survey and also the lowest rating in their polling since his return to the White House.

Trump’s overall average approval rating was 40.6 percent as of Friday morning, according to a polling average from Decision Desk HQ, while his average disapproval rating was 57.5 percent.

Renewed fighting this week has taken its toll on the U.S. economy, elevating affordability concerns ahead of the midterms as prices at the pump and inflation increase.

The Quinnipiac survey found 60 percent of U.S. voters oppose the war — the highest level of opposition recorded since the conflict began on Feb. 28. Nearly three-quarters of Americans said they do not support deploying U.S. troops to Iran.

Similarly, the AP-NORC poll found that 64 percent of Americans believe the war has not been worthwhile — a view shared by 87 percent of Democrats, 37 percent of Republicans and 68 percent of independents.

Tags affordability AP-NORC poll Donald Trump Iran war Nate Silver Quinnipiac Polling Trump administration Trump approval rating

Continue/Read Original Article: Analyst Nate Silver says Donald Trump’s falling approval rating likely tied to gas prices, Iran war