Donald Trump’s US ratings fall to a record low amid Iran war
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
United States President Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen to a record low on the Iran war, while Democrats had a 25-point swing in their favor in a federal special election. On current polling, Democrats are likely to win the US House but not the Senate at midterm elections this November.
In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval has dropped 4.1 points since March 5 to -16.9, with 56.5% disapproving and 39.5% approving.
Trump’s net approval is at a record low, below his previous lows of -15.0 in November 2025 and February. It’s also below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump during his first term the closest at -12.8.
On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -10.7 on immigration, -21.8 on the economy, -24.2 on trade and -33.6 on inflation. The Iran war has caused a slump for Trump recently on the economy, trade and inflation but not immigration.
Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war. Net support had fallen to a low of -18.1 on April 4, but has recovered to -15.1 now, with 53.8% opposed to the Iran war while 38.7% support it.
The polls will not have caught up to the ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran on Wednesday EST. But the benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index was up 2.5% in last night’s trading session. Since a low on March 30, the S&P has surged 6.9% and is now only 2.3% below its peak in the week before the Iran war began.
Trump is likely to recover some ground on the stock market surge, particularly if fuel prices fall back. I believe as long as nothing goes badly wrong with the US stock market or the overall US economy, Trump will not become very unpopular.
Democrats have big swing in Georgia
A special election runoff occurred Wednesday EST in Georgia’s 14th federal seat, and I covered this for The Poll Bludger.
At the March 10 jungle primary for this seat, a Republican and a Democrat had qualified. At the 2024 presidential election, Trump had defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 37 points in Georgia 14.
While the Republican won by 55.9–44.1, this 12-point Republican margin was a 25-point drop from Trump’s 2024 margin. I also covered a Wisconsin Supreme Court election which the left-wing judge won by 20 points. Wisconsin voted for Trump by 0.9 points in 2024.
This Poll Bludger post covered the results of recent European elections and the upcoming Hungarian election on Sunday and three Canadian by elections on Monday.
See Also: https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker. Chart embedded below:
Continue/Read Original Article: https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-us-ratings-fall-to-a-record-low-amid-iran-war-279965
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