2026 U.S. Midterms Report: March 2026 Update

Editor’s Note: Prepared for DrWeb’s Domain by Claude. Next report will be end of April. -–DrWeb. Note the Time window: Mid-February 2026 through end of March 2026. Data current as of April 9, 2026.

The Numbers

The approval data in Chart 1 below tells a stark story. As of the end of March, no major pollster had Trump above 44 percent, and most placed him between 35 and 37 percent approval — with disapproval running as high as 62 percent (CNN/SSRS, March 26–30).

The CNN Poll of Polls average landed at 37 approve / 61 disapprove, a net of -24. That is not a blip. It reflects a sustained slide that began at the start of his second term, when Trump entered office at roughly 47 percent approval, and has moved consistently downward since.

The economy is the engine driving those numbers. CNN/SSRS found Trump’s approval on the economy at a career low of 31 percent, and his approval on inflation at just 27 percent — down from 44 percent a year ago. Roughly two-thirds of Americans now say his policies have made economic conditions worse, a 10-point increase since January. With the Iran war pushing gas above $4 a gallon nationally and the CBO projecting higher inflation through 2029 partly due to tariffs, voters are connecting their kitchen-table frustrations directly to presidential decisions.

Critically, the erosion is not confined to Democrats and independents. The Economist/YouGov found that among 2024 Trump voters, strong approval dropped 15 points in just three weeks — from 84 percent approving in early March to 76 percent by month’s end. Republicans who strongly approve fell from 52 percent in January to 43 percent by the CNN/SSRS poll. When a president starts losing altitude with his own base, it creates a very different kind of political environment heading into a midterm year.

What the Prediction Markets Are Saying

Chart 2 shows the Polymarket prediction market odds as of April 9, 2026 — and they are the most lopsided readings of this midterm cycle so far.

Traders are pricing Democrats as 87 percent favorites to flip the House, with Republicans at just 13 percent. The Senate is considerably tighter, with Democrats at 53 percent and Republicans at 47 percent — reflecting the difficult map Democrats face defending seats in Georgia, Michigan, and other competitive states even as the political environment tilts their way.

These are sentiment indicators, not polls — real money is behind them, but they move with the news cycle and should be read alongside traditional surveys rather than in place of them. That said, the scale of the House number is notable. The generic congressional ballot — where Democrats currently lead by roughly 6 points in most aggregates — combined with redistricting changes in California, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, gives that 87 percent figure more grounding than it might otherwise have.

The Bigger Picture Heading into Spring

Historical patterns are worth keeping in mind here. In 2006, George W. Bush sat at roughly 38 percent approval as the Iraq war dragged on — and Republicans lost 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats, flipping both chambers. In 2018, Trump was at about 41 percent approval and lost 40 House seats. New district-level estimates now show Trump’s approval below 50 percent among registered voters in 135 Republican-held congressional seats — 104 in the House, 31 in the Senate. That is the structural danger Republicans are sitting in right now.

Democrats are not without their own challenges. Party approval is still low in absolute terms — CNN found the Democratic Party itself at just 28 percent approval. The generic ballot lead of D+6, while meaningful, is not yet wave territory on its own. The out-party typically gains another 5 points between spring and Election Day in midterm cycles; if that pattern holds, November could look very different from today. But the conditions have to hold — and a lot can change between now and then.

What is clear right now: the 2026 midterms are shaping up as a direct referendum on a second-term president whose approval has fallen nearly 8 points since January 2025, whose base is showing unusual cracks, and whose signature issues — prices, the economy, foreign policy — are all running negative in the polls. The charts above capture that moment in the data. We will update them monthly as the cycle develops.

Updated monthly until midterms in November, 2026.