A state-by-state look at U.S. House redistricting, and how it might affect the 2026 midterm election
- Published: May. 15, 2026, 7:00 a.m.
By Joel Odom | The Oregonian/OregonLive
Politics is an inexact science, so it’s difficult to predict exactly how the redistricting wars of the past year are going to play out in the 2026 midterm election in November.
But overall, the state-by-state squabbles over U.S. House district boundary lines are clearly favoring the Republicans as the GOP tries to maintain control of the House (and the Senate) despite significant hurdles that include President Donald Trump’s low approval rating, high gas prices, inflation and an unpopular war with Iran.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, called two recent court rulings in redistricting battles in Louisiana and Virginia that went the Republicans’ way “seismic developments.”
“Right now, it’s a coin flip,” Johnson told The Hill on Wednesday about his party’s odds in the midterms.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York vowed that the Democrats would fight back.
“We’re going to win in November, and then we’re going to crush their souls as it relates to the extremism that they are trying to unleash on the American people,” Jeffries said Wednesday.
Republicans currently hold a 217-212 edge in the House and a 53-47 advantage in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with Democrats).
In the midterm election of 2018, during Trump’s first term, Democrats gained 40 seats in the House. The 2026 political climate might favor another Democratic surge in November, but redistricting is a fly in the ointment.
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia projects that Republicans’ net gain from redistricting could be between six and 10 seats. The center still expects Democrats to overcome that deficit and gain seats in the House, but its assessment says the redistricting advantage is strong enough that it gives Republicans a chance to maintain their majority if enough things fall the GOP’s way.
Here is a state-by-state look at the Center for Politics’ breakdown:
Potential redistricting effects on 2026 House races
Projected gains for Democrats
California: 4-5 seats
Utah: 1 seat
Projected gains for Republicans
Alabama: 1 seat
Florida: 3-4 seats
Louisiana: 1 seat
Missouri: 1 seat
North Carolina: 1 seat
Ohio: 0-1 seat
South Carolina: 1 seat
Tennessee: 1 seat
Texas: 3-4 seats
Projected net gain for Republicans
6-10 seats, accounting for all of the above and potential toss-up races
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Several states’ efforts to redraw districts are ongoing in the South. The Louisiana state senate on Thursday passed a plan that eliminates a majority-Black district after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the state had illegally created a district based on race. In South Carolina, Republican Gov. Henry McMaster is calling the legislature into a special session starting Friday to take up redistricting. And Alabama Republicans also are trying to change that state’s congressional map.
But with time running short before the 2026 midterm, the redistricting tug of war is sure to extend into 2028. Jeffries said Democrats would be working on redistricting in at least seven states — Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington — ahead of the 2028 election.
“That’s at least seven states where we will be able to unleash a decisive and forceful response to what they are doing in the Deep South,” Jeffries said. “And I’m telling you right now, we will.”
About Joel Odom – Joel Odom is an audience producer at The Oregonian/OregonLive. That means he writes about trending topics in news, life and culture, and sports. He has held a variety of news and sports jobs at The… jodom@oregonian.com
Continue/Read Original Article: A state-by-state look at U.S. House redistricting, and how it might affect the 2026 midterm election – oregonlive.com
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