Why Texas could determine which party controls the Senate in 2027

By William A. Galston, March 4, 2026

• The results in the March 3rd Texas primaries may lead Democrats to add the Lone Star State to their list of Senate targets in November. Unlike some other recent contests, the Texas Democratic primary was not a race between a moderate and a progressive, because Talarico is hard to categorize as a moderate.
• If Attorney General Paxton prevails, several surveys suggest that Talarico would have an even chance of winning the general election.

HOUSTON, TEXAS – MARCH 02: Texas Senate candidate James Talarico (D-TX) speaks at a campaign rally on March 2, 2026 in Houston, Texas. Talarico is visiting various locations around the state in the lead up to tomorrow’s primaries. (Photo by Danielle Villasana/Getty Images.

Both history and current polls point to a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives next year. The U.S. Senate is another matter. With Republicans now holding a 53 to 47 majority, Democrats face the daunting task of defending their vulnerable seats while flipping four seats now held by Republicans.

Democratic leaders have regarded North Carolina and Maine as their best chances to make gains in the Senate and have identified races in independent-minded Alaska and Republican-leaning Ohio, where longtime senator Sherrod Brown is campaigning to regain the office he lost in 2024, as their best chances to win the two additional seats they will need for a majority.

The results in the March 3rd Texas primaries may lead Democrats to add the Lone Star State to their list of possibilities. State representative James Talarico, widely regarded as the Democrats’ strongest candidate for the general election, scored a solid 6-point victory over Jasmine Crockett, who represents Texas’s 30th congressional district in the House of Representatives.

On the other side of the aisle, four-term incumbent senator John Cornyn was forced into a runoff with Texas attorney general Ken Paxton, who finished within one point of Cornyn despite the numerous controversies that have dogged his public and personal life. Republicans now face an expensive and bitter three-month contest between a veteran traditional conservative in the mold of the two Bush presidents and a Tea Party-era insurgent who backed Donald Trump from the beginning. Meanwhile, Talarico can use this time to raise funds for a very costly general election contest and take his campaign on the road.

Source: Why Texas could determine which party controls the Senate in 2027 | Brookings